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来源类型 | Discussion paper |
规范类型 | 论文 |
来源ID | DP4230 |
DP4230 Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices | |
Peter Bofinger; Robert Schmidt; Johannes Leitner | |
发表日期 | 2004-02-23 |
出版年 | 2004 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | This Paper presents a reappraisal of unemployment movements in the European Union. Our analysis is based on the chain reaction theory of unemployment, which focuses on (a) the interaction among labour market adjustment processes, (b) the interplay between these adjustment processes and the dynamic structure of labour market shocks, and (c) the interaction between the adjustment processes and economic growth. We divide the shocks into institutional variables, price variables, and growth drivers. Estimating a system of labour market equations for a panel of EU countries, we derive the dynamic unemployment responses to each shock. Our analysis permits us to distinguish between the short- and long-run effects of the shocks. Different shocks generate different degrees of ?unemployment persistence? (responses to temporary shocks) and ?unemployment responsiveness? (responses to permanent shocks). We find that the growth drivers play a dominant role in accounting for the main swings in EU unemployment. |
主题 | Labour Economics |
关键词 | Unemployment Natural rate Labour market shocks Chain reaction theory Employment Labour force participation Wage determination Dynamic contributions Homogeneous dynamic panels Panel unit root tests |
URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4230 |
来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533197 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Peter Bofinger,Robert Schmidt,Johannes Leitner. DP4230 Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices. 2004. |
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