G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP4230
DP4230 Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices
Peter Bofinger; Robert Schmidt; Johannes Leitner
发表日期2004-02-23
出版年2004
语种英语
摘要This Paper presents a reappraisal of unemployment movements in the European Union. Our analysis is based on the chain reaction theory of unemployment, which focuses on (a) the interaction among labour market adjustment processes, (b) the interplay between these adjustment processes and the dynamic structure of labour market shocks, and (c) the interaction between the adjustment processes and economic growth. We divide the shocks into institutional variables, price variables, and growth drivers. Estimating a system of labour market equations for a panel of EU countries, we derive the dynamic unemployment responses to each shock. Our analysis permits us to distinguish between the short- and long-run effects of the shocks. Different shocks generate different degrees of ?unemployment persistence? (responses to temporary shocks) and ?unemployment responsiveness? (responses to permanent shocks). We find that the growth drivers play a dominant role in accounting for the main swings in EU unemployment.
主题Labour Economics
关键词Unemployment Natural rate Labour market shocks Chain reaction theory Employment Labour force participation Wage determination Dynamic contributions Homogeneous dynamic panels Panel unit root tests
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp4230
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533197
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Peter Bofinger,Robert Schmidt,Johannes Leitner. DP4230 Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices. 2004.
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