全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP4230 Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP4230
	DP4230 Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices
	Peter Bofinger; Robert Schmidt; Johannes Leitner
发表日期	2004-02-23
出版年	2004
语种	英语
摘要	This Paper presents a reappraisal of unemployment movements in the European Union. Our analysis is based on the chain reaction theory of unemployment, which focuses on (a) the interaction among labour market adjustment processes, (b) the interplay between these adjustment processes and the dynamic structure of labour market shocks, and (c) the interaction between the adjustment processes and economic growth. We divide the shocks into institutional variables, price variables, and growth drivers. Estimating a system of labour market equations for a panel of EU countries, we derive the dynamic unemployment responses to each shock. Our analysis permits us to distinguish between the short- and long-run effects of the shocks. Different shocks generate different degrees of ?unemployment persistence? (responses to temporary shocks) and ?unemployment responsiveness? (responses to permanent shocks). We find that the growth drivers play a dominant role in accounting for the main swings in EU unemployment.
主题	Labour Economics
关键词	Unemployment Natural rate Labour market shocks Chain reaction theory Employment Labour force participation Wage determination Dynamic contributions Homogeneous dynamic panels Panel unit root tests
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp4230
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533197
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Peter Bofinger,Robert Schmidt,Johannes Leitner. DP4230 Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices. 2004.