| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP4254 |
| DP4254 Fiscal Policy with Agents Differing in Altruism and in Ability | |
| Philippe Michel; Pierre Pestieau | |
| 发表日期 | 2004-02-23 |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | While empirical evidence finds only a weak relationship between nominal exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals, forex markets participants often attribute exchange rate movements to a macroeconomic variable. The variables that matter, however, appear to change over time and one variable is typically taken as a scapegoat. For example, the current dollar weakness appears to be caused almost exclusively by the large current account deficit, while its previous strength was explained mainly by growth differentials. In this Paper, we propose an explanation of this phenomenon in a simple monetary model of the exchange rate with noisy rational expectations, where investors have heterogeneous information on some structural parameter of the economy. In this context, there may be rational confusion about the true source of exchange rate fluctuations, so that if an unobservable variable affects the exchange rate, investors may attribute this movement to some current macroeconomic fundamental. We show that this effect applies only to variables with large imbalances. The model thus implies that the impact of macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate changes over time. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Heterogenous information Model uncertainty |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4254 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533220 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Philippe Michel,Pierre Pestieau. DP4254 Fiscal Policy with Agents Differing in Altruism and in Ability. 2004. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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