| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP4377 |
| DP4377 Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area | |
| Harald Uhlig; Emanuel Mönch | |
| 发表日期 | 2004-05-23 |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This Paper is an exercise in dating the euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. We construct several monthly European real GDP series, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. Using this method we identify four business cycles. Studying further indicators of business activity, we conclude that the euro area has experienced three business cycles since 1970. We propose a simple amplitude/phase-length criterion for the Bry-Boschan procedure ruling out expansionary phases that are short and flat. Applying the extended procedure to US and European data, we are able to replicate approximately the dating decisions of NBER and CEPR. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Business cycle European business cycle Euro area Bry-boschan Nber methodology |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4377 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533331 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Harald Uhlig,Emanuel Mönch. DP4377 Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area. 2004. |
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