G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP4412
DP4412 Economic and Environmental Effectiveness of a Technology-based Protocol
Carlo Carraro; Barbara Buchner
发表日期2004-06-23
出版年2004
语种英语
摘要A single variable describes, day-by-day, what investors think about the state of Brazil's economy: the Brazilian component of the Emerging Market Bond Index, the Embi spread. This spread is the difference between the yield on a dollar-denominated bond issued by the Brazilian government and a corresponding one issued by the US Treasury; it is thus a measure of the markets' assessment of the probability that Brazil might default on its debt obligations. This is mainly because the cost of servicing the public debt fluctuates very closely with the Embi spread. Understanding what determines this spread, how it responds to domestic monetary and fiscal policies and to international factors, how it interacts with the exchange rate and domestic interest rates, is thus the necessary first step in order to understand macroeconomic developments in Brazil. The Paper proceeds in three steps. We first document the non-linearity in the response of the Embi spread to international financial shocks. We then study how the Embi spread affects the cost of debt service and thus the dynamics of the public debt: we estimate risk premia on various financial instruments and on the exchange rate, and we show that they all move in parallel with the Embi spread. Finally we analyse a small short-run model of the Brazilian economy to show how the effectiveness of monetary policy depends on the fiscal policy regime.
主题International Macroeconomics
关键词Embi spreads risk premium Inflation targeting Fiscal policy Brazil
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp4412
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533366
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Carlo Carraro,Barbara Buchner. DP4412 Economic and Environmental Effectiveness of a Technology-based Protocol. 2004.
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