| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP4412
|
| DP4412 Economic and Environmental Effectiveness of a Technology-based Protocol |
| Carlo Carraro; Barbara Buchner
|
| 发表日期 | 2004-06-23
|
| 出版年 | 2004
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | A single variable describes, day-by-day, what investors think about the state of Brazil's economy: the Brazilian component of the Emerging Market Bond Index, the Embi spread. This spread is the difference between the yield on a dollar-denominated bond issued by the Brazilian government and a corresponding one issued by the US Treasury; it is thus a measure of the markets' assessment of the probability that Brazil might default on its debt obligations. This is mainly because the cost of servicing the public debt fluctuates very closely with the Embi spread. Understanding what determines this spread, how it responds to domestic monetary and fiscal policies and to international factors, how it interacts with the exchange rate and domestic interest rates, is thus the necessary first step in order to understand macroeconomic developments in Brazil. The Paper proceeds in three steps. We first document the non-linearity in the response of the Embi spread to international financial shocks. We then study how the Embi spread affects the cost of debt service and thus the dynamics of the public debt: we estimate risk premia on various financial instruments and on the exchange rate, and we show that they all move in parallel with the Embi spread. Finally we analyse a small short-run model of the Brazilian economy to show how the effectiveness of monetary policy depends on the fiscal policy regime. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics
|
| 关键词 | Embi spreads
risk premium
Inflation targeting
Fiscal policy
Brazil
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4412
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533366
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Carlo Carraro,Barbara Buchner. DP4412 Economic and Environmental Effectiveness of a Technology-based Protocol. 2004.
|
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