| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP4442 |
| DP4442 Trade in the Triad: How Easy is the Access to Large Markets? | |
| Lionel Fontagné; Thierry Mayer; Soledad Zignago | |
| 发表日期 | 2004-06-23 |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We analyse the evolution of the business cycle in the accession countries, after a careful examination of the seasonal properties of the available series and the required modification of the cycle dating procedures. We then focus on the degree of cyclical concordance within the group of accession countries, which turns out to be in general lower than that between the existing EU countries (the Baltic countries constitute an exception). With respect to the euro zone, the indications of synchronization are also generally low and lower relative to the position obtaining for countries taking part in previous enlargements (with the exceptions of Poland, Slovenia and Hungary). In the light of the optimal currency area literature, these results cast doubts on the usefulness of adopting the euro in the near future for most accession countries, though other criteria such as the extent of trade and the gains in credibility may point in a different direction. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Business cycles Dating algorithms Cycle synchronization Eu enlargement Seasonal adjustment |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4442 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533393 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lionel Fontagné,Thierry Mayer,Soledad Zignago. DP4442 Trade in the Triad: How Easy is the Access to Large Markets?. 2004. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
