| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP4645 |
| DP4645 Term Structure of Risk Under Alternative Econometric Specifications | |
| Henry Allan Timmermann; Massimo Guidolin | |
| 发表日期 | 2004-09-23 |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Unlike most cross-country growth analyses, we focus on turning points in growth performance. We look for instances of rapid acceleration in economic growth that are sustained for at least eight years and identify more than 80 such episodes since the 1950s. Growth accelerations tend to be correlated with increases in investment and trade, and with real exchange rate depreciations. Political-regime changes are statistically significant predictors of growth accelerations. External shocks tend to produce growth accelerations that eventually fizzle out, while economic reform is a statistically significant predictor of growth accelerations that are sustained. Growth accelerations tend to be highly upredictable: the vast majority of growth accelerations are unrelated to standard determinants and most instances of economic reform do not produce growth accelerations. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics ; International Trade and Regional Economics ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Economic growth Economic reform |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4645 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533565 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Henry Allan Timmermann,Massimo Guidolin. DP4645 Term Structure of Risk Under Alternative Econometric Specifications. 2004. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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