| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP4656 |
| DP4656 Optimal Expectation | |
| Markus Brunnermeier; Jonathan A Parker | |
| 发表日期 | 2004-10-23 |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This Paper studies the relationship between civil war and private investment in a poor, resource abundant country using microeconomic data for Angola. We focus on diamond mining firms and conduct an event study on the sudden end of the conflict, marked by the death of the rebel movement leader in 2002. We find that the stock market perceived this event as ?bad news? rather than ?good news? for companies holding concessions in Angola, as their abnormal returns declined by 4 percentage points. The event had no effect on a control portfolio of otherwise similar diamond mining companies. This finding is corroborated by other events and by the adoption of alternative methodologies. We also use nonparametric techniques with daily data on the intensity of conflict, and find that moderate levels of violence increased the abnormal returns of the ?Angolan? portfolio. We interpret our results in the light of the widespread rent seeking in the Angolan mineral industry. |
| 主题 | Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Civil war Event studies Rent-seeking Angola |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4656 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533577 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Markus Brunnermeier,Jonathan A Parker. DP4656 Optimal Expectation. 2004. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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