| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP4664 |
| DP4664 Do Elections Always Motivate Incumbents? Learning versus Re-election Concerns | |
| Ben Lockwood; Eric Le Borgne | |
| 发表日期 | 2004-10-23 |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We examine the forecasting performance of a range of time-series models of the daily US effective federal funds (FF) rate recently proposed in the literature. We find that: (i) most of the models and predictor variables considered produce satisfactory one-day-ahead forecasts of the FF rate; (ii) the best forecasting model is a simple univariate model where the future FF rate is forecast using the current difference between the FF rate and its target; (iii) combining the forecasts from various models generally yields modest improvements on the best performing model. These results have a natural interpretation and clear policy implications. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | E47 Federal fund rate Forecasting Term structure Nonlinearity |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4664 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533585 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ben Lockwood,Eric Le Borgne. DP4664 Do Elections Always Motivate Incumbents? Learning versus Re-election Concerns. 2004. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
| 个性服务 |
| 推荐该条目 |
| 保存到收藏夹 |
| 导出为Endnote文件 |
| 谷歌学术 |
| 谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
| [Ben Lockwood]的文章 |
| [Eric Le Borgne]的文章 |
| 百度学术 |
| 百度学术中相似的文章 |
| [Ben Lockwood]的文章 |
| [Eric Le Borgne]的文章 |
| 必应学术 |
| 必应学术中相似的文章 |
| [Ben Lockwood]的文章 |
| [Eric Le Borgne]的文章 |
| 相关权益政策 |
| 暂无数据 |
| 收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
