| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP4689 |
| DP4689 Employment Concentration Across US Counties | |
| Marcel Fafchamps; Klaus Desmet | |
| 发表日期 | 2004-10-23 |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This Paper introduces a tractable, structural model of subjective beliefs. Forward-looking agents care about expected future utility flows, and hence have higher current felicity if they believe that better outcomes are more likely. On the other hand, biased expectations lead to poorer decisions and worse realized outcomes on average. Optimal expectations balance these forces by maximizing average felicity. A small bias in beliefs typically leads to first-order gains due to increased anticipatory utility and only to second-order costs due to distorted behaviour. We show that in a portfolio choice problem, agents overestimate the return on their investment and exhibit a preference for skewness. In general equilibrium, agents? prior beliefs are endogenously heterogeneous. Finally, in a consumption-saving problem with stochastic income, agents are both overconfident and overoptimistic. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Expectation Heterogenous beliefs Belief biases Consumption Saving Portfolio choice Overconfidence Gambling |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4689 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533607 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marcel Fafchamps,Klaus Desmet. DP4689 Employment Concentration Across US Counties. 2004. |
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