| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP4749 |
| DP4749 Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE Model: An Application to the Euro Area | |
| Frank Smets; Rafael Wouters | |
| 发表日期 | 2004-11-23 |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study a multi-sector model of growth with differences in TFP growth rates across sectors and derive sufficient conditions for the coexistence of structural change, characterized by sectoral labour reallocation, and constant aggregate growth path. The conditions are weak restrictions on the utility and production functions commonly applied by macroeconomists. We present evidence from US two-digit industries that is consistent with our predictions about structural change and successfully calibrate the historical shift from agriculture to manufacturing and services. We show quantitatively that reasonable deviations from our conditions do not have a big impact on the properties of the model. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Structural change Unbalanced growth Multi-sector growth Sectoral employment |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4749 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533666 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Frank Smets,Rafael Wouters. DP4749 Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE Model: An Application to the Euro Area. 2004. |
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