| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP4831 |
| DP4831 Mergers with Product Market Risk | |
| Marco Ottaviani; Albert Banal-Estanol | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-01-23 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Central bankers frequently emphasize the critical importance of anchoring private inflation expectations for successful monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization. In most monetary policy models, however, expectations are already anchored through the assumption of rational expectations and perfect knowledge of the economy. In this Paper, we re-examine the role of inflation expectations by positing, instead, that agents have imperfect knowledge of the precise structure of the economy and policy-makers' preferences, and rely on a perpetual learning technology to form expectations. We find that with learning, disturbances can give rise to endogenous inflation scares, that is, significant and persistent deviations of inflation expectations from those implied by rational expectations, even at long horizons. The presence of learning increases the sensitivity of inflation expectations and the term structure of interest rates to economic shocks, in line with the empirical evidence. We also explore the role of private inflation expectations for the conduct of efficient monetary policy. Under rational expectations, inflation expectations equal a linear combination of macroeconomic variables and as such provide no additional information to the policy-maker. In contrast, under learning, private inflation expectations follow a time-varying process and provide useful information for the conduct of monetary policy. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Inflation forecasts Policy rules Rational expectations Learning |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4831 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533740 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marco Ottaviani,Albert Banal-Estanol. DP4831 Mergers with Product Market Risk. 2005. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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