| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP4842 |
| DP4842 Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries | |
| Roberto Perotti | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-01-23 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In a simple macromodel with forward-looking expectations, this Paper looks into disclosure policy when a central bank has private information on future shocks. The main result is that advance disclosure of forecasts of future shocks does not improve welfare, and in some cases is not desirable as it impairs stabilization of current inflation and/or output. This result holds when there is no credibility problem or the central bank?s preference is common knowledge. When there is uncertainty about the central bank?s preference shock, and this uncertainty is not resolved in the subsequent period, advance disclosure does not matter for current outcomes. The reason lies in the strong dependence of one-period-ahead private sector inflation forecasts on central bank actions, which induces the central bank to focus exclusively on price stability in subsequent periods. Another implication of the model is that, in contrast to forecasts of current period shocks emphasized by the literature, forecasts of future shocks may not be revealed to the public by current policy choices because the central bank refrains from responding to its own forecasts. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Forward-looking expectations Private information Central bank forecasts Central bank disclosure Central bank transparency |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4842 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533750 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Roberto Perotti. DP4842 Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries. 2005. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
| 个性服务 |
| 推荐该条目 |
| 保存到收藏夹 |
| 导出为Endnote文件 |
| 谷歌学术 |
| 谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
| [Roberto Perotti]的文章 |
| 百度学术 |
| 百度学术中相似的文章 |
| [Roberto Perotti]的文章 |
| 必应学术 |
| 必应学术中相似的文章 |
| [Roberto Perotti]的文章 |
| 相关权益政策 |
| 暂无数据 |
| 收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
