G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP4844
DP4844 Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy
Athanasios Orphanides; John C Williams
发表日期2005-01-23
出版年2005
语种英语
摘要When choosing a contraception method, women base their decisions on their subjective expectations about the realizations of method-related outcomes. Examples of such outcomes include getting pregnant, contracting a sexually transmitted disease (STD) or experiencing side effects. By conducting a face-to-face survey, I have assembled a unique dataset on women?s subjective expectations regarding existing birth control methods. While respondents have, on average, expectations consistent with actual population outcomes, they exhibit substantial heterogeneity in their subjective beliefs, which emphasizes the need to rely on expectations data when conducting inference. I combine expectations data with observed choices to estimate a random utility model of birth control choice, without making any assumption about expectations. Effectiveness, protection against STDs and partner?s disapproval are found to be the most important factors in the decision process. I have also elicited respondents? willingness to pay (WTP) for a hypothetical 100% effective birth control method. Remarkably, the median elicited WTP is very close to the estimated parameter for preferences toward pregnancy outcome expressed in dollars. The reported WTPs are incorporated directly in the estimation to fully account for preferences heterogeneity for getting pregnant.
主题Public Economics
关键词Subjective expectations Contraception Uncertainty
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp4844
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533752
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Athanasios Orphanides,John C Williams. DP4844 Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy. 2005.
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