| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP4852 |
| DP4852 Wealth Accumulation and Portfolio Choice with Taxable and Tax-Deferred Accounts | |
| Alexander Michaelides; Francisco Gomes | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-01-23 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We develop an estimated model of the US economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behaviour of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the effects of policy-makers' misperceptions of the natural rate of unemployment during the late 1960s and 1970s on the formation of expectations and macroeconomic outcomes. We find that the combination of monetary policy directed at tight stabilization of unemployment near its perceived natural rate and large real-time errors in estimates of the natural rate uprooted here-to-fore quiescent inflation expectations and contributed to poor macroeconomic performance. Had monetary policy reacted less aggressively to perceived unemployment gaps, inflation expectations would have remained anchored and the stagflation of the 1970s would have been avoided. Indeed, we find that less activist policies would have been more effective at stabilizing both inflation and unemployment. We argue that policy-makers, learning from the experience of the 1970s, eschewed activist policies in favour of policies that concentrated on the achievement of price stability, contributing to the subsequent improvements in macroeconomic performance of the US economy. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | monetary policy Stagflation Rational expectations Learning |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4852 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533760 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alexander Michaelides,Francisco Gomes. DP4852 Wealth Accumulation and Portfolio Choice with Taxable and Tax-Deferred Accounts. 2005. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
