| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP4896 |
| DP4896 Rolling Back the Public Sector - Differential Effects on Unemployment, Investment and Growth | |
| Frederick van der Ploeg | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-02-23 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper starts from the observation that parameter instability and model uncertainty are relevant problems for the analysis of monetary policy in small macroeconomic models. We propose to deal with these two problems by implementing a novel ?thick recursive modelling? approach. At each point in time we estimate all models generated by the combinations of a base-set of k observable regressors for aggregate demand and supply. We compute optimal monetary policies for all possible models and consider alternative ways of summarizing their distribution. Our main results show that thick recursive modelling delivers optimal policy rates that track the observed policy rates better than the optimal policy rates obtained under a constant parameter specification, with no role for model uncertainty. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Model uncertainty Parameter instability Optimal monetary policy |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4896 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533800 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Frederick van der Ploeg. DP4896 Rolling Back the Public Sector - Differential Effects on Unemployment, Investment and Growth. 2005. |
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