| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP4927 |
| DP4927 Job Security and Job Protection | |
| Andrew Clark; Fabien Postel-Vinay | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-02-23 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | There are two main forces behind the large US current account deficits. First, an increase in the US demand for foreign goods. Second, an increase in the foreign demand for US assets. Both forces have contributed to steadily increasing current account deficits since the mid-1990s. This increase has been accompanied by a real dollar appreciation until late 2001, and a real depreciation since. The depreciation has accelerated recently, raising the questions of whether and how much more is to come, and if so, against which currencies, the euro, the yen, or the renminbi. Our purpose in this paper is to explore these issues. Our theoretical contribution is to develop a simple portfolio model of exchange rate and current account determination, and to use it to interpret the past and explore alternative scenarios for the future. Our practical conclusions are that substantially more depreciation is to come, surely against the yen and the renminbi, and probably against the euro. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; International Macroeconomics ; International Trade and Regional Economics |
| 关键词 | Dollar exchange rate Current account Portfolio models |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4927 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533828 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Andrew Clark,Fabien Postel-Vinay. DP4927 Job Security and Job Protection. 2005. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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