| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP4964 |
| DP4964 Productivity Spillovers, Terms of Trade and the 'Home Market Effect' | |
| Paolo Pesenti; Philippe Martin; Giancarlo Corsetti | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-03-23 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We provide a summary updated guide for the construction, use and evaluation of leading indicators, and an assessment of the most relevant recent developments in this field of economic forecasting. To begin with, we analyse the problem of selecting a target coincident variable for the leading indicators, which requires coincident indicator selection, construction of composite coincident indexes, choice of filtering methods, and business cycle dating procedures to transform the continuous target into a binary expansion/recession indicator. Next, we deal with criteria for choosing good leading indicators, and simple non-model based methods to combine them into composite indexes. Then, we examine models and methods to transform the leading indicators into forecasts of the target variable. Finally, we consider the evaluation of the resulting leading indicator based forecasts, and review the recent literature on the forecasting performance of leading indicators. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Business cycles Leading indicators Coincident indicators Turning points Forecasting |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4964 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533863 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Paolo Pesenti,Philippe Martin,Giancarlo Corsetti. DP4964 Productivity Spillovers, Terms of Trade and the 'Home Market Effect'. 2005. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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