全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP4976 A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP4976
	DP4976 A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series
	James Stock; Mark Watson; Massimiliano Marcellino
发表日期	2005-03-23
出版年	2005
语种	英语
摘要	Democratic countries with substantial inequality and where people believe that success depends on connections and luck induce political support for high tax rates and generous welfare states. Traditional wisdom is that such policies harm the economy, but there is not much evidence that countries with a large welfare state and substantial redistribution have worse economic performance and welfare. One important reason is that governments have been careful to invoke the principles of reciprocity and mutual obligations in the design of the welfare state. Unemployment benefits conditioned on work experience, no misconduct and search effort harm the economy less. Indeed, conditional benefits may even boost employment in an economy with efficiency wages. A second reason is that people care about relative incomes and become unhappy if others earn and consume much more than they do. This explains why people do not seem to get happier, even though societies grow richer and richer. With such consumer rivalry the government wishes to correct for the rat race, even if there is no need for redistribution, by taxing labour. A third reason is that in modern economies many distortions are present and removing one at a time may worsen economic performance. Conversely, increasing tax progression in economies with non-competitive labour markets induces wage moderation and boosts employment. A final reason is that countries with large welfare states typically introduce various pro-growth policies as well.
主题	Public Economics
关键词	Mutual obligations altruism Relative incomes Happiness Redistributive taxation Demand management Second best Design of welfare state
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp4976
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533874
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	James Stock,Mark Watson,Massimiliano Marcellino. DP4976 A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series. 2005.