| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP4980 |
| DP4980 Can we Trust Private Firms as Suppliers of Vaccines for the Avian Influenza? | |
| Rikard Forslid | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-03-23 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The Paper proposes a unified framework to study the dynamics of net foreign assets and exchange rate movements. We show that deteriorations in a country?s net exports or net foreign asset position have to be matched either by future net export growth (trade adjustment channel) or by future increases in the returns of the net foreign asset portfolio (hitherto unexplored financial adjustment channel). Using a newly constructed data set on US gross foreign positions, we find that stabilizing valuation effects contribute as much as 31% of the external adjustment. Our theory also has asset-pricing implications. Deviations from trend of the ratio of net exports to net foreign assets predict net foreign asset portfolio returns one quarter to two years ahead and net exports at longer horizons. The exchange rate affects the trade balance and the valuation of net foreign assets. It is forecastable in and out of sample at one quarter and beyond. A one standard deviation decrease of the ratio of net exports to net foreign assets predicts an annualized 4% depreciation of the exchange rate over the next quarter. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Exchange rates External adjustment Meeserogoff Net foreign assets Valuation |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4980 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533878 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rikard Forslid. DP4980 Can we Trust Private Firms as Suppliers of Vaccines for the Avian Influenza?. 2005. |
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