| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP5042 |
| DP5042 Forming Rational Expectations and When it is Right to be 'Wrong' | |
| Andrew Hughes Hallett; Maria Demertzis | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-05-23 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | While this is typically ignored, the properties of the stochastic process followed by aggregate consumption affect the estimates of the costs of fluctuations. This paper pursues two approaches to modelling aggregate consumption dynamics and to measuring how much society dislikes fluctuations, one statistical and one economic. The statistical approach estimates the properties of consumption and calculates the cost of having consumption fluctuating around its mean growth. The paper finds that the persistence of consumption is a crucial determinant of these costs and that the high persistence in the data severely distorts conventional measures. It shows how to compute valid estimates and confidence intervals. The economic approach uses a calibrated model of optimal consumption and measures the costs of eliminating income shocks. This uncovers a further cost of uncertainty, through its impact on precautionary savings and investment. The two approaches lead to costs of fluctuations that are higher than the common wisdom, between 0.5% and 5% of per capita consumption. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Costs of fluctuations Models of aggregate consumption Consumption persistence |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp5042 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533939 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Andrew Hughes Hallett,Maria Demertzis. DP5042 Forming Rational Expectations and When it is Right to be 'Wrong'. 2005. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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