| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP5082 |
| DP5082 Outsourcing and Technological Change | |
| Ann Bartel; Saul Lach; Nachum Sicherman | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-05-23 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In this paper we compare expected loss minimization to worst-case or minimax analysis in the design of simple Taylor-style rules for monetary policy using a small model estimated for the euro area by Orphanides and Wieland (2000). We find that rules optimized under a minimax objective in the presence of general parameter and shock uncertainty do not imply extreme policy activism. Such rules tend to obey the Brainard principle of cautionary policy-making in much the same way as rules derived by expected loss minimization. Rules derived by means of minimax analysis are effective insurance policies limiting maximum loss over ranges of parameter values to be set by the policy-maker. In practice, we propose to set these ranges with an eye towards the cost of such insurance cover in terms of the implied increase in expected inflation variability. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Worst-case analysis Robust control Minimax Monetary policy rules Euro area |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp5082 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533974 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ann Bartel,Saul Lach,Nachum Sicherman. DP5082 Outsourcing and Technological Change. 2005. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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