| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP5116 |
| DP5116 Why Do Most Italian Young Men Live With Their Parents? Intergenerational Transfers and Household Structure | |
| Marco Manacorda; Enrico Moretti | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-06-23 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In this paper we examine the effects of private agents being less than fully rational. We examine this in the context of monetary policy, where the Central Bank may have uncertain preferences either by choice or by necessity. The new feature is that we allow the public to react in two different ways to this uncertainty. They either form rational expectations and internalize the uncertainty about the Central Bank?s preferences in full; or alternatively, and if this process of internalization is costly, it forms a ?best? guess regarding those preferences. This implies a certainty equivalence strategy applied to the preference parameters. As those parameters enter the decisions non-linearly, a systematic error emerges. We examine the magnitude of the resulting error in inflation and output, following the assumption of certainty equivalence. Under all reasonable levels of uncertainty this error turns out to be small but involves trading a deflation bias against the cost of gathering the information needed for the full rational expectations solution. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Central bank preference uncertainty Certainty equivalence Rational expectations |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp5116 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534005 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marco Manacorda,Enrico Moretti. DP5116 Why Do Most Italian Young Men Live With Their Parents? Intergenerational Transfers and Household Structure. 2005. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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