| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP5166 |
| DP5166 On the Uniqueness of Optimal Prices Set by Monopolistic Sellers | |
| Gerard Van den Berg | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-08-23 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases of data become available. The marginal contribution of a particular release for the value of the signal and its precision is evaluated by computing 'news' on the basis of an evolving conditioning information set. The marginal contribution is then split into what is due to timeliness of information and what is due to economic content. We find that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is larger than that of the Employment Report. When we control for timeliness of the releases, the effect of hard data becomes sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of GDP while inflation is only affected by nominal variables and asset prices. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Forecasting monetary policy Factor model Real time data Large datasets News |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp5166 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534051 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gerard Van den Berg. DP5166 On the Uniqueness of Optimal Prices Set by Monopolistic Sellers. 2005. |
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