| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP5175 |
| DP5175 Re-election Threshold Contracts in Politics | |
| Hans Gersbach; Verena Liessem | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-08-23 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Using a panel of 21 OECD countries and 40 years of annual data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with more synchronized business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced fiscal deficits increase business cycle synchronization. The Maastricht 'convergence criteria', used to determine eligibility for EMU, encouraged fiscal convergence and deficit reduction. They may thus have indirectly moved Europe closer to an optimum currency area, by reducing countries' abilities to create idiosyncratic fiscal shocks. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | European Monetary Union Policy Maastricht Criteria Optimum Mundell |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp5175 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534060 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hans Gersbach,Verena Liessem. DP5175 Re-election Threshold Contracts in Politics. 2005. |
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