全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP5287 Collective Labour Supply: Heterogeneity and Non-Participation

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP5287
	DP5287 Collective Labour Supply: Heterogeneity and Non-Participation
	Richard Blundell; Costas Meghir; Pierre-André Chiappori; Thierry Magnac
发表日期	2005-10-23
出版年	2005
语种	英语
摘要	National accounts statistics undergo a process of revisions over time because of the accumulation of information and, less frequently, of deeper changes, as new definitions, new methodologies etc. are implemented. In this paper we try to characterise the revision process of the data of Italian GDP as published by the national statistical office (ISTAT) in the stream of the noise models literature. The analysis shows that this task can be better accomplished by concentrating on the growth rates of the data instead of the levels. Another issue tackled in the paper concerns the informative content of the preliminary releases vis a vis an intermediate vintage supposed to embody all statistical information (or no longer revisable as far as purely statistical changes are concerned) and the latest vintage of the data, supposed to be the definitive one. The analysis of the news models in differences is based on the comparison of the forecasting performance of the preliminary releases with that of a number of one step ahead forecasts computed from alternative models, ranging from very simple univariate to multivariate specifications based on indicators (bridge models). Results show that, for the intermediate vintage, the preliminary version is the better forecast, while the latest vintage, which embodies statistical as well as definitional revisions, may be better characterised by considering both the preliminary version and the bridge models forecasts.
主题	International Macroeconomics
关键词	Real-time data set for italian gdp Consistent vintages Preliminary gdp forecasting Predictions of 'actual' gdp
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp5287
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534162
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Richard Blundell,Costas Meghir,Pierre-André Chiappori,et al. DP5287 Collective Labour Supply: Heterogeneity and Non-Participation. 2005.