| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP5367 |
| DP5367 What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations? | |
| Bernard Dumas; Alexander Kurshev | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-11-17 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Despite anchoring the Irish monetary system to a common zone-wide exchange rate and interest rate, EMU has triggered sizable exchange rate and especially interest rate shocks to the Irish economy (albeit not appreciably greater than those experienced under previous exchange rate regimes). Interest rate movements have deviated widely from what a standard Taylor monetary policy rule would have counseled - though here again the deviations have been no worse in this regard than those of the previous regime. The most important shock has been associated with the large and sustained initial fall in nominal interest rates as EMU began. Through mechanisms which we formally model, the interest rate fall has had a lasting effect on property prices, construction activity and on the capacity of the labour market to absorb sizable net immigration, despite a sharp deterioration in wage competitiveness since 2002. As the long drawn-out impact of this shock subsides, the failure of the wage-bargaining system promptly to claw back the loss of competitiveness resulting from exogenous exchange rate movements is increasingly likely to show up in weaker aggregate employment performance. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Asymmetric shocks European monetary union Ireland |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp5367 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534224 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bernard Dumas,Alexander Kurshev. DP5367 What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?. 2005. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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