| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP5426
|
| DP5426 Monitoring Works: Getting Teachers to Come to School |
| Esther Duflo; Rema Hanna
|
| 发表日期 | 2005-12-22
|
| 出版年 | 2005
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | Using state-of-the-art methods, this study estimates and compares the effects of exogenous shocks to global oil production on seven major industrialized economies. The main findings are: (1) There is a fair degree of similarity in the real growth responses. An exogenous oil supply disruption typically causes a temporary reduction in real GDP growth that is concentrated in the second year after the shock. (2) Inflation responses are more varied. The median CPI inflation response peaks after three to four quarters. There is clear evidence that exogenous oil supply disruptions need not generate sustained consumer price inflation. Evidence of sustained inflation (as in the case of Germany) therefore must reflect a favorable institutional environment. (3) The evidence of stagflationary responses is strongest for Germany, Japan and Canada, whereas for the US, the UK and Italy there is little or no evidence of stagflationary responses to oil supply shocks. (4) As measured by cumulative inflation and real growth responses, some countries such as Italy, France and Japan have fared well when faced with exogenous oil supply disruptions, whereas others such as Germany have not. (5) A counterfactual historical exercise suggests that the evolution of CPI inflation in the G7 countries would have been similar overall to the actual path even in the absence of exogenous shocks to oil production, consistent with a monetary explanation of inflation. There is no evidence that the 1973/74 and 2002/03 oil supply shocks had a substantial impact on real growth in any G7 country, but for some G7 countries the 1978/79, 1980, and 1990/91 shocks had some impact. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics
|
| 关键词 | Counterfactual
inflation
Oil supply
Real gdp growth and stagflation
Exogeneity
Dynamic effects
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp5426
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534283
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Esther Duflo,Rema Hanna. DP5426 Monitoring Works: Getting Teachers to Come to School. 2005.
|
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