| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP5430 |
| DP5430 Stuck on Gold: Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Rise and Fall of the Gold Standard, 1870-1939 | |
| Alan M. Taylor; David Jacks; Natasha Chernyshoff | |
| 发表日期 | 2006-01-12 |
| 出版年 | 2006 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | During technological revolutions, stock prices of innovative firms tend to exhibit high volatility and bubble-like patterns, which are often attributed to investor irrationality. We develop a general equilibrium model that rationalizes the observed price patterns. The high volatility results from high uncertainty about the average productivity of a new technology. Investors learn about this productivity before deciding whether to adopt the technology on a large scale. For technologies that are ultimately adopted, the nature of uncertainty changes from idiosyncratic to systematic as the adoption becomes more likely; as a result, stock prices fall after an initial run-up. This 'bubble' in stock prices is observable ex post but unpredictable ex ante, and it is most pronounced for technologies characterized by high uncertainty and fast adoption. We examine stock prices in the early days of American railroads, and find evidence consistent with a large-scale adoption of the railroad technology by the late 1850s. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics |
| 关键词 | Bubble Railroads Technology Innovation |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp5430 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534298 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alan M. Taylor,David Jacks,Natasha Chernyshoff. DP5430 Stuck on Gold: Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Rise and Fall of the Gold Standard, 1870-1939. 2006. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
