| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP5601 |
| DP5601 Cross-Border Merger Waves | |
| Helder Vasconcelos; Eileen Fumagalli | |
| 发表日期 | 2006-03-29 |
| 出版年 | 2006 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as 'information markets', 'idea futures' or 'event futures', are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes the recent literature on prediction markets, highlighting both theoretical contributions that emphasize the possibility that these markets efficiently aggregate disperse information, and the lessons from empirical applications which show that market-generated forecasts typically outperform most moderately sophisticated benchmarks. Along the way, we highlight areas ripe for future research. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Labour Economics ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Prediction markets Information markets Event futures Information aggregation Futures Forecasting |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp5601 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534449 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Helder Vasconcelos,Eileen Fumagalli. DP5601 Cross-Border Merger Waves. 2006. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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