全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP5591 Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP5591
	DP5591 Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections
	Justin Wolfers; Eric Zitzewitz; Erik Snowberg
发表日期	2006-04-03
出版年	2006
语种	英语
摘要	Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations on November 2 and 3 in 2004, we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices and a stronger dollar under a Bush presidency than under Kerry. A similar Republican-Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush-Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all Presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican President raises equity valuations by 2-3 percent, and that since Reagan, Republican Presidents have tended to raise bond yields.
主题	Financial Economics ; Labour Economics ; Public Economics
关键词	Political economy Partisan effects Elections Event study
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp5591
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534454
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Justin Wolfers,Eric Zitzewitz,Erik Snowberg. DP5591 Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections. 2006.