G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP5635
DP5635 Why Does Capital Flow to Rich States?
Oved Yosha; Bent E Sørensen; Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan; Ariell Reshef
发表日期2006-04-11
出版年2006
语种英语
摘要Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations on November 2 and 3 in 2004, we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices and a stronger dollar under a Bush presidency than under Kerry. A similar Republican-Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush-Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all Presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican President raises equity valuations by 2-3 percent, and that since Reagan, Republican Presidents have tended to raise bond yields.
主题Financial Economics ; Labour Economics ; Public Economics
关键词Political economy Partisan effects Elections Event study
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp5635
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534478
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Oved Yosha,Bent E Sørensen,Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan,et al. DP5635 Why Does Capital Flow to Rich States?. 2006.
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