| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP5635 |
| DP5635 Why Does Capital Flow to Rich States? | |
| Oved Yosha; Bent E Sørensen; Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan; Ariell Reshef | |
| 发表日期 | 2006-04-11 |
| 出版年 | 2006 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations on November 2 and 3 in 2004, we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices and a stronger dollar under a Bush presidency than under Kerry. A similar Republican-Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush-Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all Presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican President raises equity valuations by 2-3 percent, and that since Reagan, Republican Presidents have tended to raise bond yields. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Labour Economics ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Political economy Partisan effects Elections Event study |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp5635 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534478 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Oved Yosha,Bent E Sørensen,Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan,et al. DP5635 Why Does Capital Flow to Rich States?. 2006. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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