| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP5633 |
| DP5633 New EuroCOIN: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time | |
| Marco Lippi; Mario Forni; Filippo Altissimo; Riccardo Cristadoro; Giovanni Veronese | |
| 发表日期 | 2006-04-20 |
| 出版年 | 2006 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Structural vector-autoregressions with long-run restrictions are extraordinarily sensitive to low-frequency correlations. This paper explores this sensitivity analytically and via simulations, focusing on the contentious issue of whether hours worked rise or fall when technology improves. Recent literature finds that when hours per person enter the VAR in levels, hours rise; when they enter in differences, hours fall. However, once we allow for (statistically and economically plausible) trend breaks in productivity, the treatment of hours is relatively unimportant: Hours fall sharply on impact following a technology improvement. The issue is the common high-low-high pattern of hours per capita and productivity growth since World-War II. Such low-frequency correlation almost inevitably implies a positive estimated impulse response. The trend breaks control for this correlation. In addition, the specification with breaks can easily 'explain' (or encompass) the positive estimated response when the breaks are omitted; in contrast, the no-breaks specification has more difficulty explaining the negative response when breaks are included. More generally, this example suggests a need for care in applying the long-run-restrictions approach. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Technology Business cycles Structural change |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp5633 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534496 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marco Lippi,Mario Forni,Filippo Altissimo,et al. DP5633 New EuroCOIN: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time. 2006. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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