G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP5679
DP5679 When is Democracy an Equilibrium? Theory and Evidence from Colombia's La Violencia
James Robinson; Ragnar Torvik; Mario Chacón
发表日期2006-05-12
出版年2006
语种英语
摘要This paper studies the effects that the revelation of information on the electorate's preferences has on voters' turnout decisions. The experimental data show that closeness in the division of preferences induces a significant increase in turnout. Moreover, for closely divided electorates (and only for these electorates) the provision of information significantly raises the participation of subjects supporting the slightly larger team relative to the smaller team. This behaviour contradicts the qualitative predictions of the unique quasi-symmetric Nash equilibrium of the theoretical model. We show that the heterogeneous effect of information on the participation of subjects in different teams is driven by the subjects' (incorrect) beliefs of casting a pivotal vote. Simply put, subjects overestimate the probability of casting a pivotal vote when they belong to the team with a slight majority, and choose the strategy that maximizes their utility based on their inflated probability assessment. Empirical evidence on gubernatorial elections in the U.S. between 1990 and 2005 is consistent with our main experimental result. Namely, we observe that the difference in the actual vote tally between the party leading according to the polls and the other party is larger than the one predicted by the polls only in closely divided electorates. We provide a behavioural model that explains the main findings of our experimental and empirical analyses.
主题Public Economics
关键词Voter turnout Public opinion polls Experimental economics
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp5679
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534519
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
James Robinson,Ragnar Torvik,Mario Chacón. DP5679 When is Democracy an Equilibrium? Theory and Evidence from Colombia's La Violencia. 2006.
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