| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP5687 |
| DP5687 Clubs and Households | |
| Hans Gersbach; Hans Haller | |
| 发表日期 | 2006-05-24 |
| 出版年 | 2006 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient conditions under which prediction markets prices correspond with mean beliefs. Beyond these specific sufficient conditions, we show that for a broad class of models prediction market prices are usually close to the mean beliefs of traders. The key parameters driving trading behavior in prediction markets are the degree of risk aversion and the distribution on beliefs, and we provide some novel data on the distribution of beliefs in a couple of interesting contexts. We find that prediction markets prices typically provide useful (albeit sometimes biased) estimates of average beliefs about the probability an event occurs. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Labour Economics ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Manski Information market Event future Options Futures Binary option |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp5687 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534530 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hans Gersbach,Hans Haller. DP5687 Clubs and Households. 2006. |
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