全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP5808 Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the US, UK and Sweden

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP5808
	DP5808 Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the US, UK and Sweden
	Andrew Levin; Refet Gürkaynak; Eric T. Swanson
发表日期	2006-08-21
出版年	2006
语种	英语
摘要	Survey data on household expectations of inflation are routinely used in economic analysis, yet it is not clear to what extent households are able to articulate their expectations in survey interviews. We propose an alternative approach to recovering households' implicit expectations of inflation from their consumption expenditures. We show that these implicit expectations have predictive power for CPI inflation. They are better predictors of CPI inflation than survey responses, except for highly educated consumers. Moreover, households' implicit inflation expectations respond to inflation news, consistent with recent work on the transmission of information across consumers. The response of consumers' expectations to inflation news tends to increase with their level of education. Our evidence strengthens the case for macroeconomic models with sticky information.
主题	International Macroeconomics
关键词	Inflation expectations Consumer expenditure survey Michigan survey of consumers Survey of professional forecasters Euler equation
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp5808
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534641
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Andrew Levin,Refet Gürkaynak,Eric T. Swanson. DP5808 Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the US, UK and Sweden. 2006.