全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP5851 Seemingly Irrelevant Events Affect Perceptions and Expectations - The FIFA World Cup 2006 as a Natural Experiment

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP5851
	DP5851 Seemingly Irrelevant Events Affect Perceptions and Expectations - The FIFA World Cup 2006 as a Natural Experiment
	Armin Falk; Thomas J Dohmen; Uwe Sunde; David Huffman
发表日期	2006-09-23
出版年	2006
语种	英语
摘要	This paper employs a multi-country large scale Overlapping Generations model with uninsurable labour productivity and mortality risk to quantify the impact of the demographic transition towards an older population in industrialized countries on world-wide rates of return, international capital flows and the distribution of wealth and welfare in the OECD. We find that for the US as an open economy, rates of return are predicted to decline by 86 basis points between 2005 and 2080 and wages increase by about 4.1%. If the US were a closed economy, rates of return would decline and wages increase by less. This is due to the fact that other regions in the OECD will age even more rapidly; therefore the US is 'importing' the more severe demographic transition from the rest of the OECD in the form of larger factor price changes. In terms of welfare, our model suggests that young agents with little assets and currently low labour productivity gain, up to 1% in consumption, from higher wages associated with population aging. Older, asset-rich households tend to lose, because of the predicted decline in real returns to capital.
主题	International Macroeconomics ; Public Economics
关键词	Population aging International capital flows Distribution of welfare
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp5851
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534689
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Armin Falk,Thomas J Dohmen,Uwe Sunde,et al. DP5851 Seemingly Irrelevant Events Affect Perceptions and Expectations - The FIFA World Cup 2006 as a Natural Experiment. 2006.