G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP5891
DP5891 Poverty Traps, Distance and Diversity: The Migration Connection
Jeffrey G. Williamson
发表日期2006-10-15
出版年2006
语种英语
摘要The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not robust to the inclusion of private information. In particular, this paper analyzes a generalization of the Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model, which relaxes the assumption that all consumers are perfectly informed about the level of fundamentals. In this environment, the KFG equilibrium of zero devaluation is only one of many possible equilibria. In all the other equilibria, the lack of perfect information delays the attack on the currency past the point at which the shadow exchange rate equals the peg, giving rise to unpredictable and discrete devaluations.
主题International Macroeconomics
关键词Currency crises First generation models Private information Discrete devaluations Multiple equilibria
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp5891
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534723
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Jeffrey G. Williamson. DP5891 Poverty Traps, Distance and Diversity: The Migration Connection. 2006.
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