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来源类型 | Discussion paper |
规范类型 | 论文 |
来源ID | DP5891 |
DP5891 Poverty Traps, Distance and Diversity: The Migration Connection | |
Jeffrey G. Williamson | |
发表日期 | 2006-10-15 |
出版年 | 2006 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not robust to the inclusion of private information. In particular, this paper analyzes a generalization of the Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model, which relaxes the assumption that all consumers are perfectly informed about the level of fundamentals. In this environment, the KFG equilibrium of zero devaluation is only one of many possible equilibria. In all the other equilibria, the lack of perfect information delays the attack on the currency past the point at which the shadow exchange rate equals the peg, giving rise to unpredictable and discrete devaluations. |
主题 | International Macroeconomics |
关键词 | Currency crises First generation models Private information Discrete devaluations Multiple equilibria |
URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp5891 |
来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534723 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jeffrey G. Williamson. DP5891 Poverty Traps, Distance and Diversity: The Migration Connection. 2006. |
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