| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP5946 |
| DP5946 Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets | |
| Campbell Harvey; Geert Bekaert; Christian T Lundblad | |
| 发表日期 | 2006-11-19 |
| 出版年 | 2006 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Great attention is now being paid to global imbalances, the growing U.S. current account deficit financed by growing surpluses in the rest of the world. How can the issue be understood in a more historical perspective? We seek a meaningful comparison between the two eras of globalization: ?then? (the period 1870 to 1913) and ?now? (the period since the 1970s). We look at the two hegemons in each era: Britain then, and the United States now. And adducing historical data to match what we know from the contemporary record, we proceed in the tradition of New Comparative Economic History to see what lessons the past might have for the present. We consider two of the most controversial and pressing questions in the current debate. First, are current imbalances being sustained, at least in part, by return differentials? And if so, is this reassuring? Second, how will adjustment take place? Will it be a hard or soft landing? Pessimistically, we find no historical evidence that return differentials last forever, even for hegemons. Optimistically, we find that adjustments to imbalances in the past have generally been smooth, even under a regime as hard as the gold standard. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Current account adjustment Exorbitant privilege Global imbalances Return differentials |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp5946 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534778 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Campbell Harvey,Geert Bekaert,Christian T Lundblad. DP5946 Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets. 2006. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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