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来源类型 | Discussion paper |
规范类型 | 论文 |
来源ID | DP6010 |
DP6010 The 'Great Moderation' and the US External Imbalance | |
fabrizio perri; Alessandra Fogli | |
发表日期 | 2006-12-17 |
出版年 | 2006 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | Two key issues are examined in an integrated framework: the emergence of global imbalances and the precautionary motive for accumulating reserves. Standard models of general equilibrium would predict modest current account surpluses in the emerging markets if they face higher risk than the US itself. But, with pronounced Loss Aversion in Emerging Markets, their precautionary savings can generate substantial ?global imbalances?, especially if there is an inefficient supply of global ?insurance?. A combination of fear and market failure generates imbalances as a general equilibrium outcome. In principle, lower real interest rates will ensure aggregate demand equals supply at a global level: but disequilibrium may result if the required real interest rate is negative. A precautionary savings glut appears to us to be a temporary phenomenon, however, destined for correction as and when adequate reserve levels are achieved. If the process of correction is triggered by ?Sudden Stop? on capital flows to the US, might this not lead to 'hard landing' that is forecast by several leading macroeconomists? When precautionary saving is combined with financial panic, history offers no guarantee of full employment. |
主题 | International Macroeconomics |
关键词 | Stochastic dynamic general equilibrium Loss aversion Liquidity trap |
URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6010 |
来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534846 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | fabrizio perri,Alessandra Fogli. DP6010 The 'Great Moderation' and the US External Imbalance. 2006. |
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