| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP6076 |
| DP6076 Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors | |
| Robert F. Stambaugh; Luboš Pástor | |
| 发表日期 | 2007-02-14 |
| 出版年 | 2007 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We investigate the interdependence of fiscal policies, and in particular deficits, in the European Union using an empirical analysis based on real-time fiscal data. There are many potential reasons why fiscal policies could be interdependent, such as direct externalities due to cross-border public investments, yardstick competition, tax competition and peer pressure among governments. The advantage of using real-time data is that they better reflect the policymakers? intentions than revised data. Real-time data allow us to investigate how available information is mapped into policymakers? plans, while revised data are generally 'polluted' with ad hoc reactions to unexpected developments that have taken place after the plan was made. Controlling for a large set of relevant determinants of primary cyclically adjusted deficits, we find indeed evidence of fiscal policy interdependence. However, the interdependence is rather asymmetrically distributed: the fiscal stances of the large countries affect the fiscal stances of the small countries, but not vice versa. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Fiscal policy interdependence Real-time data European union Monetary union Primary cyclically adjusted deficit |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6076 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534915 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Robert F. Stambaugh,Luboš Pástor. DP6076 Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors. 2007. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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