| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP6129 |
| DP6129 Social Interactions and Labour Market Outcomes in Cities | |
| Yves Zenou | |
| 发表日期 | 2007-02-14 |
| 出版年 | 2007 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We develop a model of the gambler's fallacy -- the mistaken belief that random sequences should exhibit systematic reversals. We show that an individual who holds this belief and observes a sequence of signals can exaggerate the magnitude of changes in an underlying state but underestimate their duration. When the state is constant, and so signals are \textit{i.i.d.}, the individual can predict that long streaks of similar signals will continue -- a hot-hand fallacy. When signals are serially correlated, the individual typically under-reacts to short streaks, over-reacts to longer ones, and under-reacts to very long ones. We explore several applications, showing, for example, that investors may move assets too much in and out of mutual funds, and exaggerate the value of financial information and expertise. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics |
| 关键词 | Behavioural finance Gambler's fallacy Hot-hand fallacy |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6129 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534966 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yves Zenou. DP6129 Social Interactions and Labour Market Outcomes in Cities. 2007. |
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