| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP6205
|
| DP6205 Dollarization and Exchange Rate Fluctuations |
| Patrick Honohan
|
| 发表日期 | 2007-03-23
|
| 出版年 | 2007
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | This paper examines the effect of monetary policy on the exchange rate during currency crises. Using data for a number of crisis episodes between 1986 and 2004, we find strong evidence that raising the interest rate: (i) has larger adverse balance sheet effects and is therefore less effective in countries with high domestic corporate short-term debt; (ii) is more credible and therefore more effective in countries with high-quality institutions; iii) is more credible and therefore more effective in countries with high external debt; and (iv) is less effective in countries with high capital account openness. We predict that monetary policy would have had the conventional supportive effect on the exchange rate during five of the crisis episodes in our sample, while it would have had the perverse effect during seven other episodes. For four episodes, we predict a statistically insignificant effect. Our results support the idea that the effect of monetary policy depends on its impact on fundamentals, as well as its credibility, as suggested in the recent theoretical literature. They also provide an explanation for the mixed findings in the empirical literature. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics
|
| 关键词 | Capital account openness
Currency crises
External debt
Institutions
monetary policy
Short-term debt
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6205
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535040
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Patrick Honohan. DP6205 Dollarization and Exchange Rate Fluctuations. 2007.
|
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