| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP6221 |
| DP6221 Survey Non-Response and Unemployment Duration - DO NOT PUBLISH | |
| Peter Dolton; Gerard Van den Berg; Maarten Lindeboom | |
| 发表日期 | 2007-04-23 |
| 出版年 | 2007 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We analyze the effect of the projected demographic transition on the political support for social security, and equilibrium outcomes. Embedding a probabilistic-voting setup of electoral competition in the Diamond (1965) OLG model, we find that intergenerational transfers arise in the absence of altruism, commitment, or trigger strategies. Closed-form solutions predict population ageing to lead to higher social security tax rates, a rising share of pensions in GDP, but eventually lower social security benefits per retiree. The response of equilibrium tax rates to demographic shocks reduces old-age consumption risk. Calibrated to match features of the U.S. economy, the model suggests that, in response to the projected demographic transition, social security tax rates will gradually increase to 16 percent; other policies that distort labour supply will become less important; and in contrast with frequently voiced fears, labour supply therefore will rise. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Labour supply Markov perfect equilibrium Probabilistic voting Saving Social security |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6221 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535079 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Peter Dolton,Gerard Van den Berg,Maarten Lindeboom. DP6221 Survey Non-Response and Unemployment Duration - DO NOT PUBLISH. 2007. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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