| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP6245 |
| DP6245 The Future of Social Security | |
| Martín Gonzalez-Eiras | |
| 发表日期 | 2007-04-23 |
| 出版年 | 2007 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We respond to the challenge of explaining the Great Inflation by building a coherent framework in which both learning and uncertainty play a central role. At the heart of our story is a Federal Reserve that learns and then disregards the Phillips curve as in Sargent's Conquest of American Inflation, but at all times takes into account that its view of the world is subject to considerable uncertainties. Allowing Federal Reserve policy to react to these perceived uncertainties improves our ability to explain the Great Inflation with a learning model. Bayesian MCMC estimation results are encouraging and favour a model where policy reacts to uncertainty over a model where uncertainty is ignored. The posterior likelihood is higher and the internal Federal Reserve forecasts implied by the model are closer to those reported in the Greenbook. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Great inflation Learning monetary policy Uncertainty |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6245 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535091 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Martín Gonzalez-Eiras. DP6245 The Future of Social Security. 2007. |
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