| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP6312
|
| DP6312 Fertility and the Real Exchange Rate |
| Andrew Rose; Saktiandi Supaat
|
| 发表日期 | 2007-05-25
|
| 出版年 | 2007
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | This paper studies the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of countries? external balance, including the oil trade balance, the non-oil trade balance, the current account and changes in net foreign assets (NFA) during 1975?2004. We explicitly take a multilateral and global perspective. In addition to the United States, the Euro area and Japan, we consider a number of regional aggregates including oil-exporting economies and middle-income oil-importing economies. Our first result is that the effect of oil shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the non-oil trade balance, and differs systematically between the United States and other oil importing countries. Second, using the Lane-Milesi-Ferretti NFA data set, we document the presence of large and systematic (if not always statistically significant) valuation effects in response to oil shocks, not only for the United States, but also for other oil-importing economies and for oil exporters. Our estimates suggest that increased international financial integration will tend to cushion the effect of oil shocks on NFA positions for major oil exporters and for the United States, but may amplify it for other oil importers. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics
|
| 关键词 | Balance of payments
External balances
International financial integration
Oil demand shocks
Oil prices
Oil supply shocks
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6312
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535151
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Andrew Rose,Saktiandi Supaat. DP6312 Fertility and the Real Exchange Rate. 2007.
|
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