| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP6326 |
| DP6326 Bayesian VARs with Large Panels | |
| Lucrezia Reichlin; Domenico Giannone; Marta Banbura | |
| 发表日期 | 2007-06-23 |
| 出版年 | 2007 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We examine global economic dynamics under learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. Under normal monetary and fiscal policy, the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Large pessimistic shocks to expectations can lead to deflationary spirals with falling prices and falling output. To avoid this outcome we recommend augmenting normal policies with aggressive monetary and fiscal policy that guarantee a lower bound on inflation. In contrast, policies geared toward ensuring an output lower bound are insufficient for avoiding deflationary spirals. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Adaptive learning Fiscal policy Indeterminacy monetary policy Zero interest rate lower bound |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6326 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535195 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lucrezia Reichlin,Domenico Giannone,Marta Banbura. DP6326 Bayesian VARs with Large Panels. 2007. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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