| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP6548 |
| DP6548 What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures? | |
| Lutz Kilian; Ron Alquist | |
| 发表日期 | 2007-11-02 |
| 出版年 | 2007 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Many factors inhibiting and facilitating economic growth have been suggested. Will international income data tell which matter when all are treated symmetrically a priori? We find that growth determinants emerging from agnostic Bayesian model averaging and classical model selection procedures are sensitive to income differences across datasets. For example, many of the 1975-1996 growth determinants according to World Bank income data turn out to be irrelevant when using Penn World Table data instead (the WB adjusts for purchasing power using a slightly different methodology). And each revision of the 1960-1996 PWT income data brings substantial changes regarding growth determinants. We show that research based on stronger priors about potential growth determinants is more robust to imperfect international income data. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Growth regressions Robust growth determinants |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6548 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535387 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lutz Kilian,Ron Alquist. DP6548 What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?. 2007. |
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