| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP6564 |
| DP6564 Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models | |
| Domenico Giannone; Antonello D’Agostino | |
| 发表日期 | 2007-11-16 |
| 出版年 | 2007 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Large fluctuations in energy prices have been a distinguishing characteristic of the U.S. economy since the 1970s. Turmoil in the Middle East, rising energy prices in the U.S. and evidence of global warming recently have reignited interest in the link between energy prices and economic performance. This paper addresses a number of the key issues in this debate: What are energy price shocks and where do they come from? How responsive is energy demand to changes in energy prices? How do consumers? expenditure patterns evolve in response to energy price shocks? How do energy price shocks affect real output, inflation, stock markets and the balance-of-payments? Why do energy price increases seem to cause recessions, but energy price decreases do not seem to cause expansions? Why has there been a surge in gasoline prices in recent years? Why has this new energy price shock not caused a recession so far? Have the effects of energy price shocks waned since the 1980s and, if so, why? As the paper demonstrates, it is critical to account for the endogeneity of energy prices and to differentiate between the effects of demand and supply shocks in energy markets, when answering these questions. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Asymmetry Causality Channels of transmission Crude oil Elasticity Gasoline Price shocks Propagation |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6564 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535403 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Domenico Giannone,Antonello D’Agostino. DP6564 Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models. 2007. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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