| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP6600 |
| DP6600 Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks | |
| Lucrezia Reichlin; Domenico Giannone; Michele Lenza | |
| 发表日期 | 2007-12-14 |
| 出版年 | 2007 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We analyze the effect of changes in fertility and longevity on taxes, the composition of government spending, and productivity. To that purpose, we introduce politics in an OLG economy with endogenous growth due to human and physical capital accumulation. Population ageing shifts political power from students and workers to retirees, leading to a reallocation of resources from education spending to retirement benefits and a slowdown of productivity growth. Calibrated to U.S. data, the closed-form solutions of the model predict retirement benefits as a share of GDP to strongly increase over the next decades and the education share to fall. This effect depresses the annual productivity growth rate by 10 basis points. In spite of higher labor-income taxes, per-capita labour supply is predicted to rise, as a consequence of increased life expectancy. The equilibrium allocation is consumption and production efficient, but the political process allocates a much smaller share of resources to eduction than a Ramsey planner with balanced welfare weights. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Labour supply Transfers Growth Public education Government budget |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6600 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535431 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lucrezia Reichlin,Domenico Giannone,Michele Lenza. DP6600 Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks. 2007. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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