| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP6640 |
| DP6640 Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch | |
| Seppo Honkapohja; George W. Evans | |
| 发表日期 | 2008-01-11 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on econometric learning. Some apparently natural policy rules turn out to imply expectational instability of private agents' learning. We use the standard New Keynesian model to illustrate this problem and survey the key results about interest-rate rules that deliver both uniqueness and stability of equilibrium under econometric learning. We then consider some practical concerns such as measurement errors in private expectations, observability of variables and learning of structural parameters required for policy. We also discuss some recent applications including policy design under perpetual learning, estimated models with learning, recurrent hyperinflations, and macroeconomic policy to combat liquidity traps and deflation. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Fluctuations Determinacy Imperfect knowledge Interest-rate setting Learning Stability |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp6640 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/535474 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Seppo Honkapohja,George W. Evans. DP6640 Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch. 2008. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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